Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests include Dave Weigel, Larry Sabato, Sean Trende, Clare Malone, Greg Bluestein, Lenny Bronner, ...
Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.
This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...
In 16 years of running election forecasts, I’ve never seen such a close election. But that leaves a majority of cases where the election will probably be close, and it’s worth sorting through the ...
This is the weekly Still Counting post. It’s coming to you a day late because yesterday was one of those days. Not in a bad way, but in the way the last few days before the election typically are.
You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...
I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...
Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are off by 3-4 points in the same direction in every state? I’m choosing 3-4 ...
What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.
Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...
In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?
Results that may be inaccessible to you are currently showing.
Hide inaccessible results