European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany ...

Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions.

WTI is relatively calm amid the current conflict in the Middle East. Markets are too complacent on US crude relative to other international benchmarks.

The war in the Persian Gulf has achieved a temporary balance thanks to the Cold War-era Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) logic. After Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars natural gas field, Tehran ...

The typical central bank playbook suggests looking through the temporary inflation effects of energy price shocks, as the negative medium-term growth effects act as a counterbalance. The one thing ...

Investors are a fickle bunch. Suddenly, the selloff in tech stocks seems a distant memory and all eyes are focused on the oil shock. Yet to treat yesterday’s concerns about tech stocks and today’s ...

The Fed held rates steady today but sharply revised up its interest rate expectations for 2026, in line with the move that had already occurred in the market (Chart 1). The bulk of the committee has ...

Over the course of the past two weeks, the denizens of BCA’s GeoMacro Strategy have produced a lot of content, almost all of it tactical.1 Investors are trying to navigate a fast-paced event with a ...

Overnight, the Israeli military reported that it managed to kill two high-profile Iranian leaders: the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the leader of the internal paramilitary ...

Middle East tensions sparked a surge in volatility, yet the S&P 500 decline has been comparatively modest. Across asset classes, moves seem related to risk preferences and near-term inflation concerns ...

War momentum and escalating rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent above $100 and raised the risk of a broader supply shock. While parallels with 2022 offer a roadmap, today’s shock is ...