Over the course of the past two weeks, the denizens of BCA’s GeoMacro Strategy have produced a lot of content, almost all of it tactical.1 Investors are trying to navigate a fast-paced event with a ...

Overnight, the Israeli military reported that it managed to kill two high-profile Iranian leaders: the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the leader of the internal paramilitary ...

The conflict in the Middle East persists as the US and Israel continue their strikes, and so does Iran’s retaliation with drones and ballistic missiles against the Gulf States. The Strait of Hormuz is ...

Middle East tensions sparked a surge in volatility, yet the S&P 500 decline has been comparatively modest. Across asset classes, moves seem related to risk preferences and near-term inflation concerns ...

Our March 13 tactical insight into the ongoing Third Gulf War has incited a lot of client feedback. Our client base is almost equally divided, at least judging by the responses, between those who ...

War momentum and escalating rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent above $100 and raised the risk of a broader supply shock. While parallels with 2022 offer a roadmap, today’s shock is ...

The Labor Market Is Still BecalmedTwo months into the new year, the labor market appears to be stuck in the same rut it slipped into in 2025. Job creation remains feeble and there is no sign yet that ...

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The Treasury CurveThe war in Iran remains the dominant market driver, and the primary impact on the Treasury market has been a hawkish re-pricing of near-term Fed rate ...

We outline a framework for the Iran war's impact on the commodity outlook in the event of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption. We break it down into three phases: (1) the Initial Shockwave, (2) ...

Investors are too complacent on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Upgrade cash and downgrade equities, both to neutral.

The conflict in the Middle East persists as the US and Israel keep striking at Iranian military and internal security sites, and Iran has responded with its own missiles and drones against the Gulf ...

The conflict in Iran has entered the “post-Trump taco zone” where it is now all about Tehran’s reaction function. President Trump has already deescalated, at least rhetorically.